Texas is on track to pick up four House seats after the next round of Congressional re-apportionment. Matt Glazer explains what this means:
In any case, these 4 seats could mean big gains for us if Democrats have a say in how the new map is drawn.
It is easy to see a situation where Republicans gerrymander a map and solidify some Democratic seats but at the same time make current seats either more competitive or flip[] them completely. This is the exactly what Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and David Dewhurst did in 2003 with their unconstitutional map.
There is one way to have a say in the process and prevent another purely partisan map. A constitutional amendment in 1951 established the redistricting process and established the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB). The board is composed of the lieutenant governor, speaker of the house, attorney general, comptroller, and land commissioner. Let’s go through this really quickly; David Dewhurst, Tom Craddick, Greg Abbott, Susan Combs, and Jerry Patterson will determine the fate of these 4 new seats along with the 32.
All five of these folks are Republicans. Without a voice at the table, we’ll surely get railroaded once more. But there is hope:
We currently have 71 Democrats in the state house. If we can win back the House this cycle (pick up 5 more seats) we will have taken 1 of the 5 seats on the redistricting board.
Indeed, the TX House situation is already vastly improved from just a few years ago – it was 88-62 in the GOP’s favor after 2002. What’s more, the momentum is ours – we just won a special election last month in heavily Republican territory. Taking the House back this cycle would undoubtedly be very energizing. Should we fall just short, though, we’ll still have a second bite in 2010. That’s also when Texas will have statewide elections once more, which will give us an opportunity to contest some of the other offices which get a seat on the redistricting commission.
Nonetheless, while several other key legislatures (such as the NY Senate) are also on the verge of changing hands in our favor, I think Texas House may be the number one body to keep our eyes on this year.
UPDATE: Read this important comment from DCal, which clarifies the LRB’s role in redistricting. Bottom line: It’s not involved in federal map-drawing – just state. Still, federal redistricting plans must be approved by the legislature, which means the TX House will have a say along with the Senate and Governor. So taking it back is probably even more crucial than I originally understood it to be.
is the PA House. We hold it by just one vote and we are going to need it in 2012 so we don’t lose seats in redistricting in the state. Very important.
1) The LRB only comes into play if the legislature does not approve a legislative district plan on its own:
2) The LRB only impacts state legislative districts, not Congressional districts:
Both quotes are from the same Texas redistricting site linked to in the article above.
So, if Democrats take over the Texas State House, they would be on equal footing with Republicans when Congressional districts are drawn.
Right now, we hold a very tenuous one vote majority over the board that redraws state districts in Ohio. If one of our statewide office holders were to lose, we’d be outta luck.
Functionally, reapportionment (US House Districts) is gonna be a challenge because Ohio will be losing two seats… again. It comes down to the governor, the Ohio state senate and the Ohio state house. Ted Strickland is our governor, but I am certain that he will be on the short list of Veep candidates if HRC is the presidential nominee.
Actually, given that no Republican has EVER won the White House without carrying Ohio, Ted should be on EVERYBODY’S short list.
In the Ohio General Assembly, in the senate, we only hold 12 seats out of 33. and the Democratic senate caucus campaign operation is moribund. It has $257,034.72 CoH vs $1,393,717.57 for their GOP counterparts. And this following a 2006 election that was an historic tidal wave for Democrats and historic statewide GOP scandals.
But in the Ohio House, Democrats control 46 out of 99 seats and have a chance to gain control. It won’t be easy. The GOP was able to field candidates for every seat while a number of Democratic slots either went empty or lack a competitive candidate. Campaign funds remain a problem.
The Ohio House Democratic caucus campaign fund has $420,340.21 CoH vs. $1,735,672.75 for the GOP.
For all of the details, please visit the OhioDailyBlog where Jeff has a definitive candidate list, based on the filings at each county BOE (The filing deadline was last Friday at 4:00 PM.)
Those of us in the trenches in Texas are really excited about the lege in 2008. In DFW, I can see two pick ups pretty easily (though we have three or four really tough keeps too). I also like one of the senate races here too.
As for redistricting, one of the major Texas bloggers and I have been passing numbers and notes about redistricting. It’s a lot of speculation, but it’s stilll interesting. He said that he would try to post something on it today.